2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Marcus Jones
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
The State of the Race
What a difference one season can make. TV stars like Nathan Fielder and Donald Glover can go from being on the cusp of a Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series nomination for “The Rehearsal” and “Atlanta,” respectively, to now being top contenders for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for their new shows “The Curse” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.”
It is definitely a weird year for the Drama categories, with so few previously recognized series being eligible again. And even if the shows did get recognition, like “The Crown” for instance, star Dominic West did not. In fact, the only performance listed below that has been recognized by the Emmys already is Timothy Olyphant’s lead turn in “Justified,” an FX series that got rebooted this season, but that nomination was back in 2011.
While it is much harder for an already running show to make it into the Outstanding Drama Series category over a new show, the acting categories often highlight performances that have built up a reputation. This is why “Slow Horses” star Gary Oldman has a better chance of receiving an Emmy nomination than his Apple TV+ series does as a whole. The spy series having picked up a couple trophies during the winter awards season does help put it on the radar of voters. Similarly, though “Parish” may not be the highest rated new show on AMC, its star Giancarlo Esposito tends to be an actor that Emmy voters often recognize for whatever new role he takes on.
It should also be noted that the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series highlights how genre shows have grown as Emmys contenders. Similar to a performance like Pedro Pascal’s on “The Last of Us,” Walton Goggins’ starring role in the new video game adaptation “Fallout,” and Tom Hiddleston’s return to “Loki,” a standout in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, both have strong chances at a nomination.
Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
Idris Elba, “Hijack” (Apple TV+)
Giancarlo Esposito, “Parish” (AMC)
Joel Edgerton, “Dark Matter” (Apple TV+)
Colin Farrell, “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
Nathan Fielder, “The Curse” (Showtime)
Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins, “Fallout” (Prime Video)
Tom Hiddleston, “Loki” (Disney+)
Ben Mendelsohn, “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Timothy Olyphant, “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
Ramón Rodríguez, “Will Trent” (ABC)
Morgan Spector, “The Gilded Age” (HBO)
LaKeith Stanfield, “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
Dominic West, “The Crown” (Netflix)
More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards click here.
Last Year’s Winner: Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: At best, an actor from an HBO series like “The Gilded Age” star Morgan Spector winning would continue the winning streak the pay cable network has in this category. Slightly more likely though is Dominic West being the second actor to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for his portrayal of Prince Charles on Netflix’s “The Crown” (the first was Josh O’Connor for his performance in Season 4.)
Notable Ineligible Series: Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, and Jeremy Strong, “Succession” (ended); Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul” (ended); Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us” (Season 2 is not eligible); Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man” (Season 2 is not eligible)
